Prediction-market operator Kalshi has issued a lifetime ban against former US congressman George Santos, citing evidence of insider dealing related to bets he placed on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. According to a disciplinary notice, Santos made sizeable wagers between February 2 and 25 on a market tied to whether he would attend the event—an outcome he could directly influence. The platform’s compliance team concluded his activity showed signs of non-public information usage, with Santos having earned $17,839.57 from the trades.
Santos has faced multiple legal consequences stemming from his time in office and beyond. He was previously sentenced to a seven-year prison term for wire fraud and identity theft but served only three months before Trump ordered his release in 2025. In July, he agreed to pay $35,000 to settle a federal investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission into the same State of the Union trades. Kalshi separately issued a penalty of $71,356 against him. The platform referred his case to federal authorities earlier this summer after internal systems detected suspicious behavior.
The enforcement actions reflect broader trends in the prediction-markets industry, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have reported increased unusual trading patterns. Both companies have strengthened their monitoring systems and adopted more aggressive responses to potential misconduct. Regulators have indicated that platforms will face higher compliance standards as the industry expands and becomes more mainstream, particularly regarding trades tied to political or economic events. The industry faces heightened scrutiny during this period of rapid growth and mainstream adoption.
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