The UK Conservative Party has released a report arguing that abandoning net-zero climate targets would reduce electricity costs and ultimately benefit the environment by making electrification of transport and heating more affordable. The report, produced by the centre-right thinktank Onward using modelling by Transira Energy, proposes an alternative policy pathway that would prioritize lower electricity costs over climate commitments after the next election in 2029. Conservative officials contend that cheaper power would encourage adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps, thereby reducing overall emissions.
However, expert analysis reveals significant flaws in the report’s underlying assumptions and methodology. According to the findings, the alternative scenario would result in 524 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions between 2030 and 2050, primarily from increased reliance on unabated gas-fired power generation. Rather than supporting the Conservative argument, the report itself demonstrates that abandoning net-zero policies would produce worse climate outcomes. Additionally, the report’s claim that lower electricity prices would drive electrification is contradicted by its own modelling, which shows reduced uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps in the alternative scenario.
Energy experts have identified multiple methodological problems that undermine the report’s conclusions. The analysis relies on assumptions that gas prices will remain low and stable, which analysts describe as questionable. Furthermore, the report fails to account for significant costs, including an estimated £65-95 billion in additional petrol and diesel fuel expenditure needed to replace missing electric vehicles. The proposed pathway would also involve removing government subsidies and mandates that support electrification, such as heat pump grants and vehicle emission standards, while providing enhanced support for data centre connections—costs that the report does not fully address.
Additionally, the report’s analysis of the electricity-to-gas price ratio indicates that this cost relationship would not improve sufficiently to naturally drive consumers toward electric heating without continued government incentives. Energy analysts argue that with more credible assumptions about technology costs and market dynamics, renewable energy sources rather than gas and nuclear would emerge as the lowest-cost option for electricity generation.
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