Climate skeptics and right-wing commentators have circulated social media charts suggesting that 2026 is Europe’s quietest year for wildfires. The claims were promoted by figures including former Conservative peer Matt Ridley, Trump administration official Matthew Wielicki, and author Bjorn Lomborg. However, fact-checkers at Carbon Brief determined that these assertions rely on distorted data and misrepresent the true scope of wildfire activity across Europe.
The misleading charts use data from the Global Wildfire Information System, which defines “Europe” to include all countries on the continent, encompassing the entirety of Russia. This geographic definition skews the analysis significantly, as Russia accounts for approximately 74 percent of the area in the GWIS European dataset. In 2026, Russian wildfires—which typically comprise 80 to 90 percent of the burned area in this dataset—are substantially below historical averages. When Russia’s unusually quiet fire season is aggregated with more active regions, it creates a false impression of continental calm.
Analysis using the European Forest Fire Information System, which focuses exclusively on the 27 European Union member states and excludes Russia, reveals a starkly different picture. As of late July, the EU’s cumulative burned area stands at approximately 435,000 hectares, ranking as the second-worst for this time of year since records began, surpassed only by 2022. France has experienced particularly severe conditions, setting a modern record for annual burned area after a record-breaking June heatwave dried vegetation across the region. The country’s cumulative burned area exceeded its previous annual record by nearly 24,700 hectares. More than 220,000 people were evacuated from the Gironde fire west of Bordeaux, potentially constituting France’s largest peacetime evacuation.
Spain’s wildfire season similarly ranks among the worst on record for comparable time periods, with nearly 90,000 people displaced. The fires, concentrated near Madrid, have burned areas more than twice the size of the capital city. Across southwestern Europe, the wildfires have displaced more than one-third of a million people. Government officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, have characterized the fires as manifestations of climate change. An impending heatwave threatens to exacerbate the situation in coming days.
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