Climate skeptics and right-wing commentators have circulated charts on social media claiming that Europe is experiencing its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026. These claims have been shared by prominent figures including former University of Alabama geochemist Matthew Wielicki, who was recently appointed to lead the US Global Change Research Program, as well as UK-based commentators affiliated with climate-skeptic organizations.
However, fact-checkers have identified significant flaws in the data presented. The charts rely on the Global Wildfire Information System, which defines “Europe” as encompassing the entire continent, including Russia, which accounts for approximately 74% of the area in this definition. Since Russia has experienced below-average fire activity in 2026, including it in the comparison creates a misleading impression of continental wildfire trends. In contrast, data specifically for the 27 European Union nations, provided by the European Forest Fire Information System, tells a different story. As of late July, the EU’s burned area stands at nearly 435,000 hectares, representing the second-worst year for this time of period in available records, surpassed only by 2022.
The distinction between datasets also reflects different measurement approaches. The Global Wildfire Information System includes agricultural fires deliberately set to manage cropland, a practice that is declining across much of Europe. The European Forest Fire Information System, by contrast, filters specifically for forest fires using land-cover data. Individual EU member states have been hit particularly hard by the recent fires. France has broken its modern record for annual burned area by a significant margin, with more than 220,000 people evacuated from the Gironde fire region in what may represent the country’s largest peacetime evacuation. Spain’s wildfire season has also ranked among the worst on record.
Research experts have characterized the widespread claims of an unusually quiet wildfire year as highly misleading. Specialists note that aggregating fire data across climatically diverse regions obscures the reality that western Europe has experienced exceptional fire conditions. With forecasts predicting an impending heatwave, concerns have grown that the fires may intensify further in the coming period.
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