A poll released earlier this month by Median Strategies, a previously unknown organization, claimed to show Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading a progressive challenger by approximately 12 percentage points in a competitive mayoral race. The Bass campaign shared the polling data on social media, and it was subsequently covered by news outlets before being revealed as fabricated.
Median Strategies disclosed to the Los Angeles Times that the purported results were invented as part of what the company described as a “short-term social experiment” to examine how unverified polling information could spread through the political ecosystem. The organization provided no details about its creators or the experiment’s purpose before shutting down its website. The incident also involved fake polls regarding gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and Nevada, according to the company’s admission.
Major independent polling aggregators, including The New York Times and FiftyPlusOne, did not include the Median Strategies data in their databases because the releases lacked standard transparency information, such as methodological details and identification of the firm conducting the work. Aggregators noted that when they attempted to contact Median Strategies for clarification, the company did not respond to requests. The Bass campaign subsequently deleted its social media promotion of the poll but defended itself by noting the data had been covered by multiple news outlets.
Election experts characterize the episode as illustrative of broader challenges in polling verification. Critics argue that numerous surveys lack rigorous methodology, and campaigns and political groups have incentives to amplify favorable findings before verification occurs. Trading activity on prediction markets showed modest price movements following the Bass campaign’s promotion of the false poll, with contract trading concentrated on platforms where users were betting on election outcomes.
The AP and other major news organizations maintain verification standards for polling data before publication. Experts note that while instances of acknowledged falsified polling remain uncommon, the proliferation of unvetted surveys with minimal transparency has made distinguishing credible data increasingly difficult for campaigns and voters alike.
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