Six major Southeast Asian economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines—are facing significant obstacles in expanding gas-fired power generation, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The region’s combined goal of installing 53 gigawatts of new gas-fired capacity by 2030 is now projected to result in only approximately 15 gigawatts becoming operational by the end of the decade, representing a substantial shortfall in these nations’ power development ambitions.
Multiple factors are contributing to the delays, including a worldwide shortage of gas turbines, volatile liquefied natural gas pricing, and broader supply chain disruptions. Only 11 gigawatts of the planned gas-to-power pipeline has secured turbine supply, while the remaining capacity faces delivery lead times of at least five years. Financing constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks further complicate project execution. Vietnam faces the most significant gap between its targets and expected delivery, with only 3.7 gigawatts of its 29.4 gigawatt goal likely to begin operations by 2030. Indonesia, the region’s largest economy, has secured turbine supply for only 200 megawatts of its planned 8.4 gigawatt pipeline. Singapore represents the sole exception, appearing on track to meet its gas capacity targets through secured turbine supply for major projects.
The ongoing Middle East crisis has intensified pressure on Southeast Asian policymakers by driving up LNG prices and tightening global gas markets. In response, several governments are increasing near-term reliance on coal for power generation, viewing it as a necessary buffer during the supply disruption. However, analysts emphasize this represents an energy security priority rather than a fundamental shift in transition strategies. The International Energy Agency notes that governments are reassessing investment and policy approaches with emphasis on diversification through renewable energy, electrification, and efficiency improvements.
These challenges are prompting policymakers to reconsider gas’s role in both near-term and long-term energy transition planning. Coal is expected to play a larger role than previously anticipated in the near term, while renewable capacity expansion has become increasingly central to Southeast Asia’s energy security strategy. The IEA projects renewable capacity could nearly triple by 2035 under current policies, with potential for even greater growth if announced targets are achieved. Despite these shifts, coal and gas-fired generation are expected to remain components of the region’s power mix through 2050 under most scenarios.
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