George Santos, the disgraced former Republican congressman from New York, reached a settlement Friday with the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission over his trading activity on Kalshi, a prediction marketplace. According to the settlement terms, Santos will pay $35,000, comprised of restitution of more than $17,000 in unlawful profits and a fine of $17,500. The CFTC also imposed a three-year ban on Santos’ trading activity.
The investigation centered on trades Santos made regarding his attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. Santos had publicly stated his intention to attend the event and discussed his plans frequently in advance. However, minutes into the speech in February, he posted on social media indicating he had been delayed at the airport and would not be attending. This change of circumstances affected trading odds on Kalshi, where odds of his attendance had been placed near 75 percent.
Santos’ attorney said his client chose the settlement to avoid protracted litigation and stressed that the agreement should not be construed as an admission of wrongdoing. The lawyer characterized Santos as having genuine intentions to attend, noting he had booked both hotel and plane reservations before a winter storm allegedly prevented his travel. According to the statement, Santos made no attempt to conceal either his original plans or his subsequent change of plans.
Kalshi, which reported Santos to regulators, indicated it would pursue its own enforcement action and work to reimburse affected traders using any recovered penalties. The investigation also prompted rival prediction platform Polymarket to terminate its association with Santos in June.
Santos previously gained prominence after winning election to represent parts of Queens and Long Island but faced expulsion from Congress after numerous false claims about his background, education, and professional history came to light. He was subsequently charged with federal wire fraud and identity theft, pleaded guilty, and served less than three months of his sentence before receiving clemency from Trump.
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