Saxony-Anhalt will hold a state election on 6 September that could mark a historic turning point in German politics. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right party officially classified by domestic intelligence as extremist, is polling at up to 42% in the state and could potentially secure an absolute parliamentary majority. This outcome would be unprecedented in postwar Germany, as the party has long been excluded from power through a political consensus known as the Brandmauer, or firewall.
An AfD government would have significant consequences across multiple levels. State governments in Germany hold constitutional authority over education, law enforcement, public broadcasting, and civil administration. The party has proposed revising school curricula to emphasize German achievements while downplaying wartime history, defunding anti-racism programs, and restructuring public media. Additionally, control of state-level institutions could enable ideological appointments and create a restrictive environment for state employees.
At the federal level, an AfD state government would grant the party representation in the Bundesrat upper house, allowing it to introduce policy initiatives and disrupt consensus, even if it cannot unilaterally block legislation. On the international stage, the party’s increased influence would weaken European cohesion. The AfD opposes climate action measures and advocates against military aid to Ukraine while seeking normalized relations with Russia—positions that would undermine Western unity and benefit Russian strategic interests.
Analysts suggest the Brandmauer strategy itself may have contributed to the AfD’s rise. By preventing the party from participating in government, the firewall has insulated it from the compromises and accountability that typically moderate far-right parties elsewhere in Europe. Simultaneously, the CDU’s reliance on Grand Coalitions with the SPD to exclude the AfD has blurred distinctions between mainstream parties, reinforcing the AfD’s claim that establishment parties are interchangeable. These dynamics have frustrated voters and driven further support toward extremes, with the AfD’s polling strength nearly doubling since 2018.
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