Germany’s hydrogen industry has announced roughly 6 GW in paid reservations on its emerging hydrogen core network, which FNB Gas presented as evidence of momentum in the developing hydrogen economy. However, examination of these figures reveals significant methodological issues that inflate the apparent demand signal.
The 6 GW figure combines approximately 2.7 GW of hydrogen entry reservations with about 2.3 GW of exit reservations, plus roughly 0.5–0.6 GW of inter-cluster transport capacity. This accounting approach creates double-counting, as hydrogen that enters the network at one location and exits at another is recorded in both entry and exit categories. Consequently, the widely cited figure does not represent 6 GW of hydrogen that German companies have committed to produce, purchase, or consume, but rather reflects network-capacity accounting presented in a manner that exaggerates underlying commercial commitment.
When examined against the Hydrogen Core Network’s design specifications—which include approximately 101 GW of planned entry capacity and 87 GW of exit capacity by the early 2030s—the reservations represent only roughly 3.3% of planned entry capacity and 2.6% of planned exit capacity. Additionally, the reservations themselves constitute weaker commitments than standard long-term pipeline contracts. They are options that allow customers to preserve access to future hydrogen capacity while deferring decisions on actual bookings. ONTRAS charges only 2.5% of the applicable annual capacity tariff to maintain these reservations, while GASCADE charges 4%. Under certain conditions, these payments can be credited against future actual bookings.
The identifiable customers holding reservations are predominantly existing refineries and industrial hydrogen applications, with TotalEnergies’ 500 MW reservation for its Leuna refinery representing approximately 22% of Germany’s total exit capacity reservations. These reservations reflect legitimate corporate risk management for companies seeking to preserve strategic options regarding future hydrogen policy and supply. However, this concentration reveals that the reservations primarily serve existing industrial hydrogen markets—particularly refining, which accounts for roughly 40% of global hydrogen demand—rather than demonstrating the emergence of new hydrogen economy sectors such as trucking, heating, or power generation that have been promoted as justifications for the large-scale network infrastructure.
The reservations represent a credible signal for Germany’s core industrial hydrogen sector, but they demonstrate that network operators have attracted modest commitments from existing industrial customers while the vast majority of planned network capacity remains unreserved. This pattern suggests the infrastructure is being built ahead of demonstrated demand in nascent hydrogen markets.
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