Gold traded at $4,643.95 on Monday, marking a three-month peak following a rally of approximately 17% from its July low. December COMEX futures surpassed $4,700 for the first time in more than three months, signaling renewed investor interest in the precious metal.
The recovery marks the conclusion of an extended correction that commenced at a January record of $5,598 and persisted for roughly 26 weeks. Technical analysis indicates the downtrend has been broken on both weekly and daily charts. The correction had reached a low of $3,942.92, representing approximately a 29% decline from the January high over the correction period. Weekly relative strength index readings near 40 during that test suggested a temporary pullback within a longer bull trend rather than a fundamental reversal.
The break came amid deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and shifting monetary policy expectations. U.S. federal debt crossed $40 trillion, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to double debt buyback operations. Simultaneously, the dollar index slipped below 100, reducing the cost of gold for international buyers. Central banks contributed additional support through 289 tonnes of purchases in the second quarter, representing a 62% increase year over year.
Gold surpassed key technical resistance levels, closing above its 20-week moving average for the first time since April and breaking through a descending trendline from the January peak. The advance paused briefly within a $4,300 to $4,400 zone from August 6 through August 19, with technical consolidation suggesting continued buyer interest rather than exhaustion. Daily relative strength index readings reached 71.7, the highest level since January, though weekly momentum at 60 indicated additional room for advancement.
Goldman Sachs maintained a year-end price target of $4,900, having reduced it from $5,400 in June. The bank identified $4,400 as a potential downside scenario should the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. Immediate resistance levels were positioned at $4,700, with a secondary band at $4,750 to $4,800.
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