U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated this week that oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day, with flows on Sunday exceeding the pre-conflict average of 20 million barrels per day. The assertion has drawn skepticism from commodity analysts and vessel-tracking services, which report substantially lower export volumes based on tanker monitoring data.
Ship-tracking data indicates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at most half the volume claimed by Secretary Wright. Various tanker-monitoring companies estimate approximately 9 million barrels per day leaving the Middle East through all export channels so far this month, creating a discrepancy of 3 million to 5 million barrels per day. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, stated that reconciling the disparity between observed data and the secretary’s claims is not feasible. Kpler data from earlier in the week indicated declining vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz as negotiations toward a U.S.-Iran agreement appeared to stall.
Secretary Wright subsequently doubled down on his claims, asserting that the U.S. Department of Energy maintains superior data in coordination with the U.S. military. He attributed discrepancies to private businesses undercounting ships that move through the waterway covertly. However, he did not disclose the methodology behind the department’s data compilation and analysis. The U.S. Energy Information Administration separately reported this week that Hormuz traffic remains severely constrained, with expectations for continued constraints through the month.
Analysts noted that the coming five to six weeks will reveal the accuracy of these claims as exports begin appearing in import data across various countries. Some observers acknowledged the possibility that vessel-tracking services could underestimate volumes due to increased dark-mode tanker activity. Others suggested the administration may be engaging in optimistic rhetoric regarding the conflict’s outcomes or attempting to influence oil prices ahead of upcoming elections. The national average gasoline price remained above $4 per gallon this week, marking the highest August average on record.
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