Chancellor John Healey has signaled that the government intends to prevent consumers from experiencing exploitation at petrol pumps and retail checkouts amid an ongoing conflict in the Middle East that is affecting energy prices. While acknowledging that no substantial evidence of price gouging has emerged during the crisis, Healey communicated through a weekend column that ministers are conducting close oversight of major retailers for any signs of unjustified price increases.
The chancellor faces a complex economic challenge as energy price pressures reignite broader cost-of-living concerns for British households. The Bank of England recently maintained interest rates while cautioning that further escalation of the conflict could push inflation above 4% in coming months, placing additional strain on family budgets.
Economic forecasters have raised concerns about potential recession risks. A report from EY indicated that the UK economy could enter recession in the following year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through early or mid-2027 as the conflict persists. The forecast models a contraction of 0.2% if the waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally transit, stays shut. However, should the strait reopen by the end of the third quarter of the current year, EY’s baseline projection suggests economic growth would remain relatively stable.
Healey’s remarks about monitoring for profiteering have the potential to reignite tensions with the retail sector. Earlier in the year, the previous chancellor had explored implementing price controls on food products to manage inflation stemming from Middle East developments, drawing strong criticism from supermarket operators. The British Retail Consortium countered on Sunday that focus should shift toward examining how government tax policies, including changes to employer national insurance and business rates, are affecting inflation levels rather than scrutinizing retailer pricing practices.
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