Rating agency S&P has identified rising risks to insurer profitability from Europe’s intensifying heatwaves, which are driving up claims across life, health, and reinsurance sectors. The agency attributes this trend to a combination of extreme temperatures and demographic shifts in the region’s population structure.
Europe’s aging demographic profile has made residents increasingly vulnerable to heat-related health crises. Over the past two decades, the proportion of EU residents aged 65 and older climbed from 16.4% to 21.6%, while those aged 80 and above increased from 3.8% to 6.1%. This shift has coincided with severe heatwave events that disproportionately impact older adults. During a heatwave in late June, approximately 9,000 of the 10,650 excess deaths recorded occurred among individuals 65 and older, as elevated temperatures exacerbated underlying conditions including heart disease and dehydration. In the UK, heatwaves in May and June this year resulted in 2,877 excess deaths compared to 1,504 during the summer of 2025.
Medical research has highlighted why older populations face particular danger from heat stress. A recent study in The Lancet Planetary Health found that adults aged 60 and over experience dangerous heat exposure at lower temperatures than previously understood. Physiological factors such as reduced sweating capacity, increased cardiac strain, and diminished blood vessel flexibility limit their ability to regulate body temperature effectively.
Beyond mortality figures, S&P emphasized that deteriorating health conditions and increased hospitalizations from heat exposure will create additional financial pressure on insurers and reinsurers. These mounting costs may be passed along to consumers through higher premiums. Though company credit ratings have not yet been affected, S&P indicated that impacts could materialize over the medium to long term as heatwaves become more frequent and intense alongside continued population aging. The agency stated it will monitor developments affecting rated reinsurers’ financial performance going forward.
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