Six months into a military conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping. The 33-kilometer waterway, which ordinarily handles more than 100 vessels daily, has experienced a 95 percent decline in traffic, with passage restricted to approximately five ships per day. This represents a significant disruption to maritime commerce, as the strait carries roughly one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas flows, along with substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas and refined products.
The conflict began with military strikes on February 28, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the strait’s closure on March 2. Traffic collapsed within days, falling from pre-war levels of approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil daily from the Gulf region to roughly nine million barrels per day as of August 2026. Direct crude oil exports through the strait have declined to an average of 2.2 million barrels daily. A brief respite occurred following a June 17 interim agreement that temporarily increased traffic to 20 vessels daily, but this proved short-lived when the United States resumed a blockade of Iranian ports on July 14, causing traffic to revert to minimal levels.
The disruption has reshaped global shipping patterns significantly. Alternative routes through the Red Sea and Southeast Asia have become increasingly important, with Singapore and Malaysia emerging as major hubs for redirected energy shipments. Russia’s fuel oil exports to these locations increased 2.5 times month-on-month in July. The closure has created economic pressure on countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies, including Pakistan, Japan, Kenya, Eritrea and Madagascar, which face higher prices, delayed shipments and the necessity of sourcing supplies from alternative locations.
Current shipping through the strait operates under temporary arrangements agreed between Iran and Oman, using their respective territorial waters. Vessels using Iran’s northern route along its coastline connect to Iranian ports, though this option remains constrained by the ongoing United States naval blockade targeting Iranian petroleum exports. The remaining traffic consists primarily of tankers operating under military escort or with disabled tracking systems. Maritime analysts note that the Strait of Hormuz’s significance stems from the absence of viable alternative maritime routes, making even temporary closures exceptionally disruptive to global trade.
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