Research by World Weather Attribution, a consortium of climate scientists, has determined that anthropogenic climate change substantially increased the likelihood of the extreme fire conditions that have affected Ontario and the Northwest Territories this year. The study concludes that such severe fire weather is now expected to recur every two to six years in the Northwest Territories and every six to 15 years in Ontario, compared to historical patterns in which such conditions would occur less than once every 40 years absent human influence on the climate.
Canada is currently experiencing widespread fire activity, with approximately 700 blazes burning and consuming roughly 3.8 million hectares, predominantly in boreal forest regions. The toxic smoke generated by these fires has spread across multiple North American cities and into the United States. According to Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather expert at Imperial College London and member of the research team, the geographic scope and intensity of this year’s fires represent a “fundamentally different” scale compared to historical patterns, particularly since 2023 when significant fires also affected the nation.
The scientists behind the analysis emphasize that climate change has amplified the conditions that promote fire by raising temperatures and drying vegetation and soils. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist and study co-author, stated that the research demonstrates fossil fuel combustion is making wildfires more frequent, intense, and difficult to manage. The WWA findings follow similar research showing the climate crisis played a substantial role in record-breaking fires in Spain and France, where the largest peacetime evacuation in recent history was ordered.
The research has become part of a broader policy debate. The current US administration has attributed the fires to Canadian management practices and threatened trade reprisals, a position that scientists have contested. Researchers note that much of Canada’s boreal forest remains unmanaged and is being affected by global emissions, with the United States historically responsible for the largest share of cumulative carbon emissions. British Columbia has additionally issued evacuation orders for 8,000 residents due to hazardous fire conditions in that province.
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