Iran’s government is pursuing a strategy centered on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, believing that sustained military pressure will ultimately compel the United States to accept Iranian dominance over this critical global shipping route. Iranian leaders argue that time favors their position, citing diminishing U.S. weapons stockpiles, domestic American opposition to the conflict, elevated energy prices ahead of congressional elections in November, and the prospect of costly military operations to reopen the waterway.
Iran has stated it is negotiating with Oman to formalize management of the strait, contingent on the U.S. lifting its economic blockade. Officials view control over the waterway—which previously functioned as an open international passage carrying roughly a fifth of globally traded oil and gas—as a means to establish regional security guarantees and leverage in potential future negotiations. Iranian analysts characterize the strait as a strategic asset that demonstrates national resilience and reinforces the government’s legitimacy domestically.
However, this approach involves substantial risks. U.S. military strikes have significantly damaged Iranian military capabilities and leadership structures. The American blockade has devastated Iran’s economy, contributing to triple-digit food inflation and mass protests in December that resulted in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of detentions. Economic analysts and former Iranian officials express concern that prolonged economic deterioration could trigger renewed civil unrest or force the government to negotiate before achieving its objectives.
The strategy also threatens international norms regarding freedom of navigation, with Iran declaring the strait an “unbreakable red line” and vowing to continue attacking ships transiting without permission. This position complicates broader diplomatic efforts, including negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Some Iranian analysts suggest that while the country can currently withstand pressure, it cannot maintain this strategy indefinitely without risking economic collapse or renewed domestic upheaval.
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