JPMorgan and Standard Chartered issued forecasts in early 2025 projecting that spot XRP exchange-traded funds would attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in their first year of trading. These estimates were based on historical inflow patterns observed in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which captured approximately 6% and 3% of their respective market capitalizations in their inaugural years. When XRP ETFs launched in mid-November, the predictions appeared potentially achievable, with the funds receiving $666.61 million in their first month and $499.91 million in December.
However, inflows dried up substantially in the months that followed. The funds collected just $15.59 million in January and $58.09 million in February, with March recording net outflows of $31.16 million. While May saw a brief resurgence with $131.94 million in inflows coinciding with progress on the CLARITY Act—legislation that would classify XRP as a commodity under federal law—momentum stalled when the bill’s passage stalled. Subsequent months saw inflows decline to $59.46 million in June and $27.29 million in July.
A significant headwind for the funds has been the sharp decline in XRP’s price. The cryptocurrency has lost more than half its value since the ETFs launched, reducing the current holdings to $988.78 million despite cumulative inflows of $1.51 billion. This substantial paper loss has dampened investor interest. Additionally, institutional investors have largely remained on the sidelines. Bloomberg Intelligence reported that only 16% of XRP ETF assets were attributed to institutional filers, with most holdings concentrated among retail investors. Goldman Sachs, which had been the largest disclosed institutional holder with a $154 million position, exited completely during the first quarter.
Analysts attributed the shortfall to two primary factors. The broader cryptocurrency bear market, which began shortly after Bitcoin’s cycle peak, has pressured all altcoin funds. Solana’s ETFs similarly underperformed their initial forecasts by a comparable margin. More critically, the legal uncertainty surrounding XRP’s regulatory status has prevented institutional participation at scale. The institutions that did return briefly in May did so specifically when the CLARITY Act appeared on track for passage, underscoring the importance of regulatory clarity for institutional capital. Standard Chartered subsequently revised its 2026 XRP price forecast downward from $8 to $2.80 as inflows deteriorated, though JPMorgan has not published updated estimates.
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