New projections released indicate that international student enrollment in the United States could decline significantly during the 2026–27 academic year. Analysis conducted by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, based on data from the Institute of International Education, estimates approximately 1,057,000 international students will enroll at American colleges and universities, down from an estimated 1,169,000 during the current 2025–26 academic year. This represents a potential loss of roughly 112,000 students.
The projected decline follows a period of recovery in international student enrollment. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of international students fell to a low of 914,000. Enrollment subsequently rebounded, reaching 1,178,000 students in the 2024–25 academic year. However, various policy changes implemented since January 2025 have contributed to the recent downturn. Actions include terminations of student statuses within the Student Exchange and Visitor Information System, new social media screening requirements for applicants, and increased rejections of visa applications at record-high levels. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security approved a rule restricting international students’ stay to four years, down from previous unlimited durations based on program completion timelines, along with limitations on changing majors and institutions.
According to the projections, the anticipated enrollment decline could have substantial economic ramifications. The loss of international students may result in approximately 40,000 fewer jobs and as much as $3.4 billion in reduced economic contributions. For context, during the 2023–24 academic year when international student enrollment peaked, these students contributed $43.8 billion to the economy and supported 378,000 jobs. The projections estimate that in the coming academic year, international students will contribute $38.3 billion and support 294,000 jobs.
Leadership at NAFSA has characterized the situation as consequential, noting that policy decisions influence where international students choose to pursue education. The organization has emphasized that the changes carry implications for research institutions, employment, innovation, and America’s competitive standing as a destination for global talent.
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