Milk, wine, salad: how your food will be affected by the summer of heat

by | Aug 14, 2026 | Climate Change

Milk, wine, salad: how your food will be affected by the summer of heat

The United Kingdom is experiencing its fifth consecutive heatwave amid widespread drought conditions, creating variable effects across the country’s agricultural sector. Livestock farmers are confronting significant challenges as grass growth has stalled at roughly half normal levels, threatening winter feed supplies. Milk production has declined modestly by approximately 1%, while sheep shearing shortages have compounded difficulties for farmers seeking to keep animals comfortable. Some operations have begun drawing down winter reserves or purchasing supplemental feed to sustain their herds through coming months.

Cereal production has been severely impacted, with forecasts indicating 2026 could deliver the worst harvest in four decades. The combined cereal and oilseed crop is projected at 18.5 million tonnes, representing the lowest yield since detailed record-keeping began in 1984. Wheat yields are anticipated to fall from typical levels of approximately 7.9 tonnes per hectare to around 6.7 tonnes, resulting in estimated losses of roughly £390 million in farmer revenue. A wet start to the year disrupted spring planting schedules, while critical moisture was lost during crucial grain development phases in May and subsequent dry periods.

In contrast, several sectors are experiencing unexpected benefits. Soft fruit production has yielded smaller but intensely flavored berries, with strawberries and raspberries performing particularly well. Cider apple quality has improved due to smaller size and concentrated sweetness, potentially creating favorable conditions for cider producers. UK wine production is showing promise, with vineyard health appearing robust and ripening progressing favorably following stable summer conditions, though some newer plantings display stress indicators.

Salad and leafy vegetable growers face distinct pressures from extreme heat, as lettuce becomes unmarketable above 35 degrees Celsius and begins experiencing stress at 24 degrees. Multiple producers report reduced head sizes and declining yields, with impacts extending to greenhouse operations where temperatures have exceeded 30 degrees. Marine conditions around Britain’s coast have also warmed significantly, with Cornwall’s waters registering temperatures 3-4 degrees Celsius higher than historical averages. This warming has triggered record octopus populations while displacing traditional species like cod and haddock northward, creating both export opportunities and complications for local fishing industries dependent on crab and lobster catches.

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