The Peoples Democratic Party, which dominated Nigerian politics for 16 years following the country’s transition to democracy, now confronts an existential crisis that threatens its viability in upcoming electoral contests.
The party’s trajectory shifted dramatically following the 2015 federal election, when it lost the presidency to Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress. Political analysts note the organization struggled to adapt to opposition after decades of wielding federal power. The situation deteriorated significantly during 2025, marked by successive waves of defections and internal fracturing. Five state governors—representing Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers—switched allegiance to the ruling APC, citing the PDP’s diminishing viability and a preference for closer cooperation with the federal government. The party’s gubernatorial holdings have declined from eight states at the beginning of 2025 to none currently, with Oyo state’s governorship slipping from its control in recent weeks.
A bitter leadership struggle has compounded organizational collapse. In November 2025, a party faction held a national convention in Ibadan despite court orders seeking to prevent it. This convention expelled Nyesom Wike, a founding member now serving in President Bola Tinubu’s government, creating rival factions with competing claims to legitimacy. Wike’s faction has secured recognition under law, enabling it to register candidates with the electoral commission while the opposing faction lacks ballot representation. This schism has effectively paralyzed party operations during the critical campaign period.
Despite institutional deterioration, some party members maintain optimistic outlooks. A politician within the anti-Wike faction pointed to historical precedents from Thailand and Argentina as examples of political parties recovering from prolonged setbacks, suggesting restoration remains feasible by 2032. However, political analysts contend that independent recovery appears unlikely, proposing instead that strategic alliances with the African Democratic Congress or Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress may represent the party’s sole pathway to political relevance.
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