October WTI crude oil futures climbed to $86.31 late Thursday, marking a weekly gain of $4.82 or 5.91 percent. The contract opened the week at $81.62, dipped to $80.80, and peaked at $87.69 before Friday’s session concluded trading activity.
The rally reflected market anticipation that failed to materialize. Traders had been awaiting a potential agreement that would ease tensions and restore normal operations, but negotiations between Washington and Tehran have instead diverged further. No diplomatic discussions are currently scheduled, and the ceasefire in the region has concluded, removing any near-term catalyst for de-escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central factor driving oil market dynamics. Historically, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas consumption passes through the waterway. Current shipping traffic has contracted to single-digit vessel passages, with data showing significant day-to-day volatility. The strait continues operating substantially below normal capacity despite some industry adaptations.
Refineries face ongoing challenges in securing reliable cargo flows that can be scheduled, insured, and delivered predictably. While Saudi Aramco has resumed limited loadings from within the region and begun offering supplies through transfers at Fujairah, and Chinese companies have commenced collecting crude outside the Gulf, these measures have primarily prevented a complete supply disruption rather than restoring normal trade patterns. Market participants view the situation as a restricted supply system lacking momentum toward full normalization, with geopolitical tensions continuing to constrain global energy logistics.
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