Ontario’s electricity demand reached 145.6 TWh in 2025 and is projected to grow significantly, with IESO forecasting demand between 207 and 297 TWh by 2050. However, the province faces a more immediate challenge: accounting for already-planned projects, Ontario will be short more than 8 TWh of annual energy in 2032, growing to over 12 TWh by 2035. A meaningful summer capacity gap is not expected until 2035 and would start at approximately 950 MW. This indicates Ontario’s primary concern is securing sufficient clean electricity throughout the year rather than addressing peak capacity needs.
Ontario has recently resumed procuring wind and solar resources after more than a decade without major renewable projects. The first procurement window under the Long-Term 2 initiative signed 1,115 MW of projects expected to generate approximately 2.37 TWh annually, with pricing coming in 21% below previous comparable renewable procurement. Battery storage capacity is also expanding, with contracted storage now exceeding 3.5 GW by 2030 following a recent 640 MW addition at 36% below expedited procurement costs and 16% lower than the first regular battery procurement, indicating improving economics through repeat purchasing.
The province has become increasingly dependent on natural gas generation, which rose from 9.7 TWh in 2020 to 31.4 TWh in 2025, now representing 19.3% of transmission-connected generation. Beyond providing baseload power, gas facilities currently perform critical balancing functions including reserves, load following, and frequency response. Addressing this dependence requires not only adding low-carbon generation sources but also replacing the hourly services gas provides, which batteries, hydroelectric power, transmission upgrades, interconnections, and demand response are increasingly capable of delivering.
Ontario’s existing nuclear fleet represents a valuable low-carbon asset, with recent refurbishment projects at Darlington and Bruce delivering ahead of schedule and under budget. However, small modular reactors at Darlington represent a different proposition, as Ontario has not operated the GE Hitachi BWRX-300 design previously and lacks active institutional experience with new reactor construction. Future nuclear decisions at sites like Wesleyville and Bruce C should remain flexible rather than committed, given uncertainty about long-term demand patterns and the improving economics of renewable and storage technologies. Current priorities should include accelerating deployable resources, continuing reactor refurbishments, learning from the SMR program, and preserving larger nuclear options until demand patterns and technology costs become clearer.
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