Russia’s military is struggling to maintain troop levels as casualties mount in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, forcing officials to intensify recruitment efforts through increasingly aggressive means rather than resort to another widespread draft call-up that could destabilize the country politically.
Western analysts estimate Russian forces sustain more than 30,000 killed and wounded monthly, while the military recruits approximately 1,000 soldiers daily to fill depleted units. Since Putin’s last mobilisation in September 2022, which called up 300,000 reservists, Moscow has relied on expensive voluntary contracts offering substantial signing bonuses and salaries to attract soldiers. Despite these incentives, recruitment has slowed considerably, prompting officials at the Kremlin to explore alternative methods to replenish forces without triggering another full-scale draft.
To avoid the domestic upheaval that accompanied the 2022 mobilisation—which sparked mass emigration and eroded public confidence in the war effort—regional authorities have implemented coercive recruitment tactics. Documented methods include detaining men on streets, removing them from workplaces, and pressuring vulnerable individuals with debts or legal troubles to sign military contracts. Recruiters have also expanded targeting to prisoners eligible under a recently expanded law, university students for drone units, and residents through referral programs offering financial incentives.
A decentralized recruitment system has shifted responsibility to regional governors and local administrations, who face quotas and bonuses tied to their success. This approach has generated a commercial recruitment industry, with Russian regions spending at least 96 million dollars on recruitment bonuses and finder fees since the schemes began. However, recruiters themselves report the effort is becoming increasingly difficult despite higher financial incentives.
Meanwhile, political risks surrounding another mobilisation remain significant. Recent polling indicates declining Russian confidence in the war’s trajectory, with public belief that the campaign is progressing well at its lowest point since April 2022. Analysts suggest the Kremlin will likely continue escalating recruitment pressure and coercion before resorting to mass mobilisation, though some experts question whether the voluntary system can sustain required troop levels indefinitely.
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