Russia is experiencing a significant decline in labor migration from Central Asia, with official work entries falling to 1.9 million during the first half of 2026 compared to 2.3 million the previous year, according to an analysis of government data by the business daily Vedomosti. Uzbekistan accounted for the largest share of these migrants at 1.1 million entries. The decline comes at a time when Russia faces pressing labor shortages across multiple economic sectors.
Migration experts attribute the downturn to multiple factors. Stricter Russian government policies on guest worker employment, combined with increased costs for work permits and medical certifications, have raised barriers to entry. Additionally, Central Asian governments have actively discouraged migration to Russia in favor of other destinations. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev issued a decree in June establishing diplomatic positions at embassies in multiple countries to promote alternative labor migration opportunities. Uzbekistan has pursued a strategic shift toward facilitating skilled worker placements with European Union nations, including an agreement with Germany to admit qualified workers.
Remittance data reflects changing migration patterns among Central Asian workers. Uzbek workers sent home $3.8 billion during the first quarter of 2026, up 13 percent year-over-year, yet Russia’s share of total remittances declined to 72 percent from 78 percent during the same period. Contributions from Kazakhstan, South Korea, and EU states increased proportionally.
The labor shortage poses significant economic challenges for Russia. The country currently has approximately 2.5 million vacant jobs with an unemployment rate estimated at 2 percent, well below the 4 percent level economists consider optimal for price stability. Russian Central Bank officials have identified labor shortages as a primary threat to controlling inflation. The bank raised its 2026 inflation estimate from 4.5-5.5 percent to 6-7 percent in July. Long-term projections indicate Russia will need to add 10.9 million workers by 2030 to replace retirees and fill new positions, a goal that appears increasingly difficult without resumed Central Asian migration.
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