The Social Security Administration’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is projected to fall within a range of 3.4% to 3.6%, according to preliminary estimates released following the publication of July inflation data. Multiple organizations tracking the metric have issued forecasts based on the latest government statistics, with estimates declining from higher projections made earlier in the year as inflationary pressures have eased.
Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson estimates the 2027 COLA at 3.4%, representing a decrease from her previous month’s estimate of 3.7% and a significant drop from her June forecast of 4.7%. Johnson attributed the declining estimates to moderating inflation trends throughout the period. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy organization, estimates the adjustment at 3.6%, down from its prior projections of 3.8% in both June and July. AARP projects a 3.5% adjustment, which would translate to a $73 monthly increase for the average retired worker’s benefit.
The 2027 COLA estimate of 3.4% to 3.6% remains above the long-term historical average of approximately 2.6%, though it aligns with the past decade’s average of 3.1%. Recent years have seen elevated adjustments driven by inflation spikes, including 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. The latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday showed the CPI-W rose 3.4% over the preceding 12 months as of July, with the broader consumer price index similarly increasing 3.4% year-over-year.
These estimates remain preliminary and subject to change, as the official COLA announcement typically occurs in October. The final calculation uses third-quarter inflation data spanning July, August, and September, compared to the prior year’s corresponding period. Inflation trends over the coming weeks will influence the ultimate adjustment amount announced for the upcoming year.
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