Global climate data through the first half of 2026 shows the third-warmest January-June period on record across all major temperature datasets, with conditions shifting notably warmer each month since January. The year began under lingering weak La Niña conditions, but transitioned dramatically to El Niño in April when tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures crossed established thresholds. By June, the warming index had reached 1.6°C, marking one of the fastest intensifications in the observational record, and by early July had exceeded 2°C, outpacing any previous El Niño development in recorded history.
Model forecasts from 14 different research groups analyzing 667 simulation runs indicate median peak temperatures for the developing El Niño could reach 3.59°C in the latter half of 2026, with over 91 percent of simulations predicting it would become the strongest El Niño event in the modern record. While accounting for long-term ocean warming trends that can inflate apparent event strength, approximately 77 percent of models still project a record-breaking event. This strengthening El Niño has substantially increased the probability that 2026 will rank as the warmest year on record, rising from 19 percent in April to 35 percent currently, with the upward revision driven almost entirely by improved El Niño forecasts rather than observed temperature changes through June.
Regional temperature extremes during the first half of 2026 included a late-June European heatwave that brought record warmth to Western Europe and broke multiple national temperature records. France recorded a June maximum of 44.3°C while the United Kingdom exceeded 37.3°C on three consecutive days. More than 30 percent of global land and ocean surfaces experienced top-five warmest conditions for the January-June period, with 7.1 percent reaching their warmest levels in the satellite record.
Carbon Brief’s statistical model projects 2026 will average approximately 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels, positioning it as the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. However, the timing and strength of the developing El Niño suggests more significant warming may follow in 2027, when tropical temperature effects typically peak. Current projections indicate 2027 has a 92 percent probability of setting a new global temperature record, with a best estimate of 1.71°C above pre-industrial levels. Together, there is a 93 percent likelihood that at least one of the two years will establish a new record, continuing a pattern of exceptional warmth in the 2020s decade.
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