Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued its downward trajectory this week, with shipping data showing minimal vessel movement. According to tracking information from Kpler cited by Reuters, only six commodity vessels transited the chokepoint on Monday in either direction, representing a decline from the 10-day average of 11 ships. The breakdown consisted of four vessels moving inbound into the Persian Gulf and two exiting outbound. Alternative data sources showed slightly lower figures, with one tracking service recording five total commercial crossings for the day.
The inbound traffic included two empty product tankers, while a small liquefied natural gas carrier and a residual fuel tanker departed the Persian Gulf with energy products bound for international buyers. In contrast, activity at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, which connects the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, remained stable at approximately 24 vessels, consistent with recent 10-day averages.
The dramatic reduction in Hormuz traffic reflects broader concerns about regional security conditions. The decline follows a brief period of improved movement between mid-June and early July, when tentative reopening occurred under a now-defunct U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Subsequent deterioration in security conditions, including recent maritime attacks and persistent threats from Iran-aligned Houthi forces in the Red Sea, drove traffic to its lowest point in more than 60 days by the end of last month.
Energy market analysts have raised concerns about the sustainability of current traffic levels. According to Bank of America assessments, crude markets require Hormuz traffic to recover to pre-conflict levels of 80 to 100 vessels daily to stabilize. Current vessel passages, estimated at 5 to 10 ships per day, contrast sharply with approximately 140 daily transits before regional tensions escalated, according to Francisco Blanch, the bank’s head of commodities and derivatives research.
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