Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk both exceeded second-quarter expectations and raised full-year guidance, yet the market’s response to their results differed significantly, highlighting growing confidence disparities between the two obesity and diabetes drug manufacturers.
Lilly reported revenue growth of 48% compared with the prior year, driven by demand for its Mounjaro diabetes treatment and Zepbound obesity drug. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, demonstrating investor confidence that its products can maintain sales momentum despite pricing pressures in the U.S. market. According to Lilly’s earnings presentation, the company held a 60.9% share of the obesity and diabetes drug market in the second quarter, compared with Novo’s 38.8% in that period.
Novo’s results on Tuesday also topped analyst estimates and included an upgraded full-year outlook based on increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales. The company’s Ozempic diabetes drug and obesity portfolio performed ahead of Street estimates. However, investors focused less on the quarter’s results and more on concerns about future growth prospects. Revenue from Novo’s Wegovy oral treatment came in below analyst expectations, raising questions about whether the pill can become a sufficiently large growth driver. The company noted that the medication had reached more than 5 million patients since its U.S. launch in January.
Novo faced additional headwinds from clinical trial results. An experimental obesity drug called CagriSema failed to deliver the same level of blood sugar control as Lilly’s Zepbound in a large trial, marking the second setback this year for that program. The company also reported that an experimental heart drug, ziltivekimab, did not reduce major cardiovascular events compared to placebo, eliminating what analysts viewed as a key opportunity for portfolio diversification.
Analysts characterized the divergence as positioning Lilly as a momentum story while Novo enters a demonstration phase. Wall Street observers noted that Novo’s updated outlook implies potential sales decline this year, contrasting sharply with Lilly’s projected revenue expansion. Novo plans to expand its Wegovy pill into Germany in September, marking the first European Union market entry for the product.
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