Primary elections held earlier this week in Texas and North Carolina marked the opening contests of the midterm cycle, with several races generating significant spending and remaining unresolved.
The most prominent competition centered on Texas’ Republican Senate primary, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton both failed to secure the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff scheduled for May. As of Wednesday morning, Cornyn maintained a narrow lead of approximately 26,000 votes out of 2.1 million cast. The race, characterized by campaigns as pitting the political establishment against an insurgent challenger, showed no clear ideological or geographic pattern. Cornyn performed strongly in Texas’ largest urban counties, including Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin and Houston, while Paxton demonstrated competitive strength in suburban areas and counties with strong Trump support.
On the Democratic side, the Senate primary faced voting irregularities in Harris County, the state’s second-largest county, which created confusion regarding ballot eligibility. State Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett both achieved primary victories, with Talarico building substantial margins in rural central Texas and areas along the southern border, while Crockett drew her strongest support from urban centers around Dallas and Houston.
House races across both Texas and North Carolina reflected elevated spending levels, driven partly by newly redrawn district maps. Several contests advanced to runoffs or remained too close to call, including races in Texas’ 2nd and 23rd districts. Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw became the first House incumbent of this cycle to lose reelection, falling to state Rep. Steve Toth despite over $2.3 million in campaign spending against his challenger. Rep. Tony Gonzales is headed to a runoff against Brandon Herrera, who spent approximately $1.4 million on advertising in the face of reelection difficulties stemming from recent scandal.
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