The first wave of midterm primaries occurred on Tuesday, with contests in Texas and North Carolina drawing significant attention and resources. The most closely watched race was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Texas, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton both failed to secure the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff scheduled for May. As of early Wednesday, Cornyn held a narrow lead of approximately 26,000 votes out of 2.1 million cast.
The Senate race dynamics reflected complex geographic and ideological patterns across the state. Though the contest was characterized as an establishment versus insurgent matchup, with Paxton attacking Cornyn as insufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump and too aligned with Washington Republicans, results showed the competition cutting across rather than between Texas’ urban and suburban regions. Cornyn led in the state’s largest metropolitan counties, including those encompassing Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. However, Paxton demonstrated strength in fast-growing suburban counties surrounding these cities and performed particularly well in counties where Trump achieved the highest vote shares in the 2024 presidential election.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico won his primary outright, powered by substantial margins in his Austin base and rural central counties. Rep. Jasmine Crockett drew primary support primarily from urban centers around Houston and Dallas, though with more modest margins than Talarico achieved in other regions. A Democratic primary in Harris County, home to Houston, was affected by voting issues that created confusion regarding ballot eligibility.
House races across both Texas and North Carolina featured elevated spending driven partly by newly redrawn congressional maps. Several incumbents faced significant competitive threats. Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas became the first House incumbent of the election cycle to lose reelection, despite his campaign spending over $2.3 million on advertising. Rep. Tony Gonzales and challenger Brandon Herrera are headed to a runoff, while other incumbents’ reelection prospects remained uncertain as additional contests advanced to subsequent rounds or remained too close to call.
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