Fuel theft in the United Kingdom has increased significantly following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted global energy supplies. According to data from Forecourt Eye, a fuel crime prevention platform, the frequency of theft incidents has risen 24% since the conflict began at the end of February. In monetary terms, the increase is even more pronounced at 48% when comparing the period after the war to the five months preceding it, largely due to fuel price inflation.
Current pricing reflects the tightened supply situation. Gasoline prices in the UK have reached 1.5997 pounds per liter, equivalent to approximately $2.15, while diesel prices are approaching their 2022 peaks at 1.7897 pounds per liter or about $2.41. These levels, though below some historical highs, significantly exceed the average prices seen between 2014 and 2020.
The underlying fuel shortage stems from multiple sources affecting global supply chains. The Middle East conflict has disrupted both crude oil and refined product exports from the Persian Gulf region. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have contributed to shortages, while Russia’s extended diesel export ban—which is set to continue into next year—removes a significant source of supply that previously provided between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels daily to global markets.
Despite record-high utilization rates at major refineries, with some operating at 95-102% capacity and producing record volumes of gasoline and diesel, prices remain elevated. Energy analysts have warned that fuel prices are likely to stay high for an extended period regardless of how regional conflicts develop. They emphasize that diesel supply constraints are particularly acute, as the fuel is essential to global agriculture, construction, mining, and supply chain operations.
In response to rising theft, Forecourt Eye announced plans to partner with a facial recognition technology firm to provide fuel retailers with information about known fuel thieves. The service is expected to become available from autumn.
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