Data center power demand in the United States is expected to roughly double from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs research. This expansion reflects massive capital deployment into artificial intelligence infrastructure, with global AI investments potentially exceeding $1 trillion this year alone.
Vistra, an independent power producer, stands to capture significant value from this growth trajectory compared to regulated utilities. While traditional utilities operate under cost-of-service models that cap returns on equity at roughly 10%, independent power producers like Vistra sell electricity directly into wholesale markets and can negotiate long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers. This structure allows the company to benefit from wholesale price movements while securing predictable revenue streams through fixed-term contracts.
The company has substantially expanded its customer base in recent years. Last November, Vistra secured a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services for 1,200 megawatts of carbon-free power, with extension options. In January 2026, it added a 20-year agreement with Meta Platforms to supply 2,609 megawatts from its nuclear facilities. These arrangements shift capital risk to the hyperscalers while providing Vistra with long-term cash flow visibility.
Vistra has also strengthened its asset base through strategic acquisitions and partnerships. Earlier in the year, the company announced plans to acquire Cogentrix Energy, which brings 10 natural gas plants representing roughly 5,500 megawatts of capacity across key U.S. regions, with closure expected later in the year. Additionally, Vistra partnered with KKR, Nvidia, and the Kuwait Investment Authority to launch Helix Digital Infrastructure, a $10 billion initiative to develop AI data centers where Vistra serves as the preferred power provider.
Analysts project the company’s earnings per share at $10.56 for 2027 and $12.36 for 2028. With the stock trading at approximately 12 times next year’s projected earnings, it reflects a pullback from recent highs.
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