Several of the world’s most critical maritime passages are experiencing significant disruptions from both geopolitical tensions and climate-related factors, creating challenges for global commerce.
In the Middle East, two major shipping routes have been affected by regional conflicts. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20 percent of global oil trade along with substantial quantities of fertilizers, helium, and sulfur, has been closed since early March in response to military tensions between Iran and the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near Yemen has been restricted by Ansar Allah forces, also known as the Houthis, primarily affecting Saudi oil tankers and redirecting shipping around Africa at considerable additional cost. Despite a cease-fire between the Houthis and the United States in May 2025, maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb has not recovered to previous levels and is declining again as hostilities resume.
Apart from conflict-related blockades, drought conditions induced by climate change are crippling other vital shipping corridors. The Panama Canal’s capacity has been severely constrained by insufficient rainfall needed to maintain the artificial lakes that supply water to the canal locks. Ships now face 10-day waiting periods unless they pay premium fees to expedite transit. Similarly, the Rhine River in Europe is experiencing historically low water levels, forcing vessels to reduce cargo loads and effectively creating a shipping bottleneck near Kaub, southeast of Cologne. These reduced water levels have redirected freight to truck and rail transport.
Industry observers note that diplomatic resolution of the Middle Eastern shipping disruptions appears unlikely in the near term, with Iran reportedly waiting for higher oil prices before pursuing negotiations. The climate-driven challenges in Panama and Europe present an even more intractable problem, as they cannot be resolved through negotiation. Together, these disruptions pose significant risks to global supply chains and economic activity.
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