Ocean temperatures around the Galápagos Islands are rising significantly as an El Niño weather pattern intensifies. The phenomenon, driven by a slowdown in trade winds, allows warm water to spread eastward along South America’s coast. Scientists anticipate that this year may see record global temperatures, with the following year potentially surpassing those records, placing the archipelago at the center of escalating climate concerns.
Under normal conditions, the eastern Pacific waters remain cold enough to support species typically found in polar regions, including penguins and fur seals. The Galápagos represents a unique ecosystem where temperate and tropical marine life coexist. However, El Niño episodes bring dramatic shifts, with water temperatures rising from approximately 18 degrees Celsius to above 30 degrees Celsius. These temperature increases trigger population collapses in numerous fish species as nutrient availability declines, followed by corresponding declines in seabird populations and mass starvation among marine iguanas. When conditions reverse during La Niña years, marine populations rebound.
Many Galápagos species have evolved adaptive strategies to survive these recurring cycles. Marine iguanas can reduce their skeletal size during El Niño years to conserve energy, then regrow these structures when temperatures normalize. However, scientists warn that increasingly frequent and severe El Niño events driven by climate change may exceed the adaptive capacity of these species. Jon Witman, a professor emeritus of ecology at Brown University, describes the archipelago as having “some of the highest temperature variability of any ecosystem in the world” and notes the marine system undergoes near-total collapse during El Niño before recovering in La Niña phases.
Historical records document the consequences of extreme events. During the 1982-83 El Niño, several endemic species went extinct, including the Galápagos damselfish. A 2015-16 El Niño event produced an ulcerative skin disease outbreak in fish populations with cascading effects throughout the food network. Researchers are preparing to document impacts from the anticipated event, with concern that increasing frequency of climate shocks could push the ecosystem past a critical threshold, fundamentally altering its productivity and biodiversity.
Despite these concerns, Witman expresses cautious optimism about ecosystem resilience. He has observed shifts toward more resilient coral species capable of recovery following extreme El Niños, suggesting the islands may maintain some adaptive capacity even as global temperatures continue rising.
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