The H5N1 bird flu virus has reached Australia and poses significant threats to the country’s wildlife populations, according to analysis by government and scientific experts. The disease was detected in migratory seabirds two months ago, likely originating from breeding grounds in the subantarctic. A federal government assessment identified nearly 400 bird and mammal species at elevated risk from infection, with researchers projecting the virus could spread across the continent within a year.
European experience provides a concerning precedent for what Australia may expect. In 2022, sandwich terns across Europe suffered mass mortality as the H5N1 lineage spread through wild populations, with tens of thousands of birds dying. The virus affects the brain, causing severe neurological symptoms in affected birds. Similar patterns have been observed across the globe since the virus re-emerged in Europe in 2021, killing millions of birds and mammals across multiple continents and infecting more than 400 bird species.
Research at Australian universities has modeled risk levels for local bird families based on global outbreak data. Species identified as facing the highest risk include gannets, boobies, cranes, darters, waterfowl, and gulls and terns. However, many other bird families including pelicans, crows, falcons and kestrels also show susceptibility. Scientists note that Australia’s unique avifauna, with nearly half of bird species found nowhere else on Earth, creates considerable uncertainty about how the virus will impact local populations and raises concerns about potential extinctions.
Marine mammals face particularly severe threats. Australia’s three pinniped species—the New Zealand fur seal, Australian fur seal, and already endangered Australian sea lion—have been assessed as facing very high risk. South American experience demonstrates the danger, with seal and sea lion populations in Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Uruguay suffering tens of thousands of deaths in recent outbreaks. Pinnipeds’ tendency to congregate in dense groups and share habitat with infected birds increases transmission risk.
Scientists involved in preparedness efforts note that some mitigation measures may help. Collaboration between conservation organizations, volunteers and authorities proved valuable in European responses. Long-lived bird species may demonstrate some population resilience over time. However, experts caution that the coming period could be severe, with large numbers of dead animals likely to have visible impacts on communities across Australia.
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