European natural gas markets face elevated demand pressures this winter despite forecasts of a strong El Niño weather pattern. Analysis by Rystad Energy suggests that for liquefied natural gas import requirements to fall to or below prior-year levels, European temperatures would need to exceed historical averages by at least 2 degrees Celsius—a scenario rated as unlikely despite favorable overall conditions.
Weather forecasting models issued in July 2026 indicate a strong probability of El Niño development through the winter of 2026-2027, potentially matching the intensity of the 2015-2016 event. Current projections show an 81% probability that ocean temperature indices will rise by at least 2.0 degrees Celsius and a 97% probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees. However, historical analysis reveals that even strong El Niño events do not uniformly produce equivalent warming across all regions, with Europe showing less consistent temperature gains than other areas such as Asia.
Geographic variations in El Niño’s effects complicate forecasting for Europe specifically. Western Europe typically experiences greater warming than Southern Europe during El Niño winters, influenced by interactions with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Historical data from 2001 to 2025 suggest that a 2.0-degree temperature index reading correlates with roughly 1-degree Celsius warming in European winter temperatures, though such pronounced warming has occurred only twice in the record—in December 2015 and February 2024.
Base-case projections indicate Europe requires approximately 15.15 million tonnes of additional year-on-year liquefied natural gas imports through June 2027 to compensate for lower storage levels and reduced supply linked to Middle East hostilities affecting Persian Gulf production. A moderate 1-degree Celsius warming scenario would reduce demand but still leave Europe needing roughly 7 million tonnes more than the prior winter. Only the less probable 2-degree Celsius warming scenario would bring import volumes close to prior-year levels, relieving upward price pressure.
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