The United States and Israel’s military campaign against Iran has prompted retaliatory responses that extend beyond the immediate Middle Eastern theater. Iranian military forces have conducted missile strikes against multiple countries in the Gulf region and have reportedly targeted locations far from Iranian territory, including a joint US-UK military installation. Most recently, Tehran has directed threats toward southeastern Europe, with Bulgaria emerging as a focal point of concern.
Bulgaria’s parliament approved the use of its Bezmer Air Base for refueling American military aircraft in July, establishing it as a logistical hub supporting US military operations in the Middle East. This decision prompted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to warn that nations providing assistance to what Tehran characterizes as American aggression would face potential retaliatory strikes. According to reporting citing unnamed Iranian sources, Tehran has signaled willingness to attack European targets if the conflict intensifies.
Analysts suggest southeastern Europe presents an attractive target due to its strategic significance, hosting NATO installations and serving as a supply corridor for Ukraine while maintaining proximity to the Black Sea. However, Bulgarian public opinion views the Iran conflict as distant compared to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with limited perceived economic implications. Local observers note that Bulgaria lacks the institutional capacity to resist American requests while managing competing security challenges, making compliance with the Bezmer Air Base arrangement somewhat inevitable despite the attendant risks.
Experts remain divided on whether Iran would actually execute attacks on European territory. Some argue that missile strikes against NATO members would backfire strategically, forcing European nations into active belligerence and potentially triggering collective military responses. Others contend that threats themselves serve Iranian objectives by shaping European political calculations and potentially widening divides between Europe and the United States. The credibility of Iranian threats depends partly on demonstrated willingness to follow through, while the clarity of command and control within Iranian military structures remains an additional uncertainty factor.
The prolonged nature of the US-Iran conflict may pose a greater long-term threat to Europe than immediate missile strikes, given potential economic ramifications and the diversion of European resources and attention from the Ukraine conflict. European leaders face a delicate balancing act between avoiding deeper entanglement in Middle Eastern hostilities and maintaining security partnerships with the United States amid an escalating regional confrontation.
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