Research indicates that wildfires across Europe are expected to expand significantly in coming decades despite efforts to limit global warming, according to findings released by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Under the most favorable climate outcome examined, where global temperatures rise 1.8C above preindustrial levels, burnt areas would still grow by 39% when comparing projections for 2070-2100 against baseline data from 2000-2030. In a more severe scenario with 3.6C of warming, the burnt area could nearly triple. The primary driver of increased fire risk across virtually all European regions in high-emission scenarios is worsening fire weather patterns characterized by hotter, drier, and windier conditions that enable small fires to escalate rapidly.
The research suggests that enhanced fire management strategies could moderate these increases by more than 70%, though such measures cannot fully prevent the rise in burned areas. Lead researcher Maik Billing noted that while investments in fire suppression provide some benefit, they cannot substitute for broader climate mitigation efforts. The study emphasized that firefighting improvements alone cannot address the underlying challenge posed by changing climate conditions.
The findings arrive as Europe faces an active fire season, with the European Union tracking toward its third-worst year on record. Over 600,000 hectares have burned across the EU, with recent major blazes affecting countries from Spain and France to Greece and Croatia. Northern European nations including the UK, Belgium, and Germany have also experienced significant wildfires. Record-breaking fire activity has been documented this year in Belgium, France, and Slovakia.
Experts noted that past fire suppression strategies, while reducing the number of fires since the 1980s, have inadvertently increased fuel accumulation in forests. This buildup allows remaining fires to develop into larger, more destructive events when weather conditions prove favorable. Researchers acknowledged that managing such extreme-scale fires presents challenges beyond historical firefighting experience.
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