The International Cotton Advisory Committee forecasts that worldwide cotton trade will expand over the coming years, reaching approximately 10.3 million tonnes by 2028/29, compared with 9.4 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season. This trajectory reflects a complex dynamic between production capabilities, consumption patterns, and inventory management across global markets.
In 2026/27, world cotton production is anticipated to decline by 2% to 25.8 million tonnes, while global consumption is projected to remain stable at around 25.5 million tonnes. The narrowing differential between supply and demand means that exporter inventory levels will play an increasingly critical role in fulfilling international requirements. According to Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician at the ICAC, the medium-term outlook suggests continued trade growth as markets adjust to steady consumption levels and evolving sourcing relationships.
Brazil is expected to maintain its status as the world’s leading cotton lint exporter in 2025/26, supported by strong harvests, price competitiveness, and enhanced market access. Meanwhile, US cotton exports declined in 2025/26 but are forecast to rebound by 3% in 2026/27, bolstered by increased ending stocks and gradual recovery. China, the world’s largest cotton consumer, is expected to substantially expand its imports in 2025/26 as demand rebounds from previous weakness, with potential for further growth if textile and apparel production continues expanding. Bangladesh maintains its status as a major importer, though economic and energy difficulties have constrained its consumption. Vietnam is emerging as an increasingly significant importer, benefiting from its expanding textile sector and developing trade relationships.
The ICAC identified multiple risk factors that could disrupt the projected trade path, including changing tariff policies, new trade agreements, elevated energy costs, and logistics disruptions along major shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. As global production and consumption converge more closely, any unexpected spike in demand could compel major exporters to draw more substantially on inventories, creating a delicate balance for international pricing and strategic sourcing decisions.
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