The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022 between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, was intended to conclude a two-year conflict through permanent ceasefire, disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and political dialogue. However, nearly four years after the accord, fundamental disputes remain unresolved, and developments since 2024 suggest the TPLF has used the peace period to regroup and reorganize while maintaining military capacity.
The disarmament process has proven incomplete. While Tigrayan forces surrendered heavy weapons and thousands entered demobilization programs following the agreement, military structures in the region were not fully dismantled. In 2026, reports emerged of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization in Tigray, potentially violating the accord’s prohibition on conscription and military preparations. A civilian source told media outlets that the Tigray population desires peace and fears being drawn back into conflict through such mobilization efforts.
Political repositioning has accompanied these security developments. Between 2024 and 2026, the TPLF experienced internal struggles over its post-war direction, with leadership changes in Tigray’s interim administration and the reinstatement of the regional council in May 2026. These shifts demonstrated the TPLF’s continued political influence even as the region remained caught in contests over authority and security matters.
Military activity has escalated alongside political tensions. In January, Tigray Defence Forces-aligned troops crossed into the disputed Tselemt district and clashed with federal forces. By August, fighting erupted in western Tigray near the Sudanese border. Additionally, the post-Pretoria period has seen reported closer contacts between Eritrea and TPLF elements, reversing their adversarial stance during the 2020-22 conflict. These developments reflect a broader realignment, with the emergence of Tsimdo, a coalition of groups opposed to the federal government including the TPLF, Fano, and the Oromo Liberation Army, suggesting that former adversaries are willing to set aside disputes to pressure Addis Ababa. This convergence raises questions about whether the TPLF views the peace agreement as a completed transition or as a tactical pause to rebuild capacity.
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