Republican Rep. David Valadao is navigating a competitive reelection campaign in California’s 22nd Congressional District, a rural, heavily Latino region in the state’s agricultural heartland. The race represents a significant test for Valadao, who has previously defied political headwinds to win in a shifting political landscape. Two-thirds of voters in the district are Hispanic, and recent polling indicates declining support for Trump among Hispanic voters nationally, with his approval rating among that demographic declining by 18 percentage points between March 2025 and July 2026.
Valadao, a dairy farmer of Portuguese descent, faces a well-funded challenge from Democrat Randy Villegas, a progressive backed by Senator Bernie Sanders. The race has become one of the five most expensive in the country, with Republicans spending over $13 million on advertising and digital messaging, while Democrats have invested $12.6 million. Valadao is attempting to maintain strategic distance from Trump while emphasizing his independent record on local issues such as agricultural water access. His campaign emphasizes putting people before party politics, though campaign volunteers have also promoted completing Trump’s agenda to partisan voters.
Villegas is campaigning on universal healthcare and other progressive policies, contrasting sharply with Valadao’s vote last year for Trump’s tax bill, which provided $4.5 trillion in tax breaks while cutting over $1 trillion from federal healthcare and food assistance over a decade. Economic struggles in the district, where nearly one in four residents live below the poverty line, have emerged as a central campaign issue, with voters expressing concerns about rising prices for gas, fertilizer, and groceries alongside healthcare funding cuts.
Valadao’s political base shows signs of erosion. While some longtime supporters remain loyal, others like registered Republican Elena Van Overbeek have indicated they plan to support Villegas due to concerns about healthcare cuts and unmet economic expectations. Valadao has won the district previously despite significant voter registration deficits, having won in 2012, lost in 2018, and won again in 2020. Recent redistricting made the swing district even more Democratic, further complicating his path to reelection.
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