Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled), a conflict monitoring organization, has documented a dramatic escalation in jihadist violence across Africa’s Sahel region. Data shows violence incidents in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have increased substantially from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025, with projections indicating the figure could exceed 3,000 events by year’s end. This represents a reversal of global terrorism trends, as deaths from terrorism worldwide have reached their lowest level since 2008, while Sahel fatalities have surged sharply, with the UN recording more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across the three countries in 2025.
A significant escalation occurred in April when al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front launched a joint offensive targeting government positions, resulting in the deaths of Mali’s defence minister and head of military intelligence. The campaign included ambushes, drone attacks, and car bombings that inflicted substantial casualties on military forces and Russian personnel. JNIM seized the strategic city of Kidal from government control, reversing previous military gains. Since then, the group has continued expanding its territorial control, launching additional operations across the region.
In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed responsibility for more than 130 attacks this year, extending operations closer to the capital. In Niger, the organization remains less active than its rival Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. Analysts note that contemporary al-Qaida operations in the Sahel have largely abandoned the group’s historical focus on striking US and Western targets, instead concentrating on local territorial control. Al-Shabaab, another al-Qaida-linked entity operating in East Africa, has recorded over 10,000 deaths in Somalia-related violence over the past 18 months and maintains revenue streams across the country and region despite some operational setbacks in Mogadishu.
Experts highlight that Africa’s prominence in al-Qaida operations represents a dramatic strategic shift from the group’s historical focus on Afghanistan and Iraq. The continent’s political instability, poor governance, and competition for resources create favorable conditions for militant recruitment, though territory-holding capabilities in these regions carry significant limitations for conducting global campaigns or long-range attacks. Senior al-Qaida leadership remains fragmented following the 2022 death of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, with Saif al-Adel serving as de facto leader while believed to be based in Iran. The UN has characterized the group’s senior leadership as marginalized and its capability for external operations as unclear.
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