Prediction market data indicates persistent expectations for an October listing of Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company, even as various timing adjustments have emerged in recent weeks.
Based on contracts traded on Polymarket, the probability of an October listing stands at 63%, derived from calculating the difference between an 85% chance of completion by October 31 and a 1% chance by September 30. This contrasts with implied probabilities of 21% for November and 6% for December, according to the gap between relevant contract prices.
Those odds have shifted since two weeks prior, when the October 31 contract alone traded above 80%. The decline reflects reports that Anthropic’s investor roadshow would not commence before mid-October, a delay attributed partly to negotiations surrounding a $15 billion revolving credit facility and postponement of public prospectus filing. Investment banking firms Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley are reportedly seeking to complete the listing in the days preceding the November 3 US midterm elections, according to market commentary on the prediction platform.
Anthropic confidentially submitted its registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1 and has engaged Wilson Sonsini as legal counsel. The company’s most recent private funding round, conducted in May, raised $65 billion and valued it at $965 billion. By the end of July, its annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion, according to reports.
Separate prediction market contracts on the company’s eventual market capitalization show traders substantially divided between valuations of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion at 26% probability and $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion at 22%. Anthropic has not disclosed any official listing timeline and has declined comment on reported schedules.
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