As Brazil approaches its first-round presidential election on October 4, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are locked in a competitive race according to newly released polling data. Two polls released on Monday showed the candidates in virtual parity in simulated runoff scenarios. A Quaest survey indicated Bolsonaro at 42 percent support versus 41 percent for Lula, while a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula at 46 percent compared to 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential second-round matchup.
The latest numbers represent a notable shift from earlier polling conducted in August, which had shown Lula maintaining a five-point advantage over his rival. The tightening of the race comes as Brazil’s electoral process enters its final weeks, with the October 25 runoff date set as a contingency if neither candidate secures an outright majority in the first round.
Lula is pursuing his fourth non-consecutive term as president and faces significant opposition from the political right through Bolsonaro, who is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro was disqualified from seeking office following a ruling by Brazil’s supreme electoral authority regarding an abuse of power determination and was subsequently convicted in connection with an alleged scheme to reverse his 2022 election defeat.
During his current visit to New York, where he is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly, Lula has focused his messaging on Brazilian sovereignty and economic concerns. The president has criticized recent trade actions by the United States, having characterized two rounds of tariffs imposed in July as efforts to exert political influence over the Brazilian electoral outcome. Lula held discussions with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Monday, during which the two leaders discussed mutual challenges including affordability issues affecting both nations.
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