The Climate Change Committee has released new guidance on UK aviation policy, concluding that the sector is on an unsustainable emissions trajectory. Aviation emissions have more than doubled since 1990 as passenger numbers have grown, even while emissions from other sectors in the UK economy have declined. The CCC states that the government currently lacks adequate policies to reverse this trend and meet net-zero climate targets.
Without any airport expansion, aviation emissions are projected to reach 38 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050, which would represent the majority of remaining emissions across the entire UK economy. The planned expansion of Heathrow Airport would add an additional 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050, accounting for approximately 5% of total UK emissions. A final decision on the expansion is expected by 2029. The CCC has advised that Heathrow expansion would be incompatible with UK climate commitments given current policy gaps.
The government’s previous “jet-zero strategy” from 2022 outlined plans to cut aviation emissions through sustainable aviation fuels, electric aircraft, and fuel efficiency improvements. However, the current Labour government has acknowledged that these expectations were unrealistic. The CCC recommends that a new, credible aviation policy framework be developed by 2027 that establishes the aviation sector’s responsibility for its emissions.
The committee proposes implementing a “polluter pays” approach, requiring airlines to fund sustainable aviation fuels and carbon dioxide removal technologies. This would include engineered removal methods such as direct air carbon capture and storage, technologies that are not yet available at the required scale. The CCC estimates that making airlines fund their own emissions reductions could increase ticket prices substantially—approximately £150 for a return flight to Spain and £400 to New York by 2050 in current prices—but argues this approach is preferable to public funding of aviation-related carbon removals.
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