The Climate Change Committee has released new guidance to the UK government regarding future aviation policy, warning that the sector faces a significant sustainability challenge. According to the committee’s analysis, aviation emissions have more than doubled since 1990 as passenger numbers have risen, while emissions from all other sectors of the UK economy have declined during the same period.
Without any expansion at Heathrow Airport, aviation emissions are projected to reach 38 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, representing a substantial portion of the UK’s total remaining emissions. If Heathrow is expanded as currently planned, an additional 2.4 million tonnes of CO2 would be generated annually by 2050, amounting to approximately 5% of the UK’s total emissions. The expansion would be completed by 2054, at which point emissions would reach 4.5 million tonnes.
The committee has determined that the UK currently lacks adequate policies to reduce aviation emissions in line with the government’s net-zero target. It noted that the “jet-zero strategy” launched in 2022 contained unrealistic expectations regarding sustainable aviation fuels, electric aircraft, and efficiency improvements. The CCC has recommended that a revised strategy be developed for 2027 that establishes a credible framework for aviation decarbonization.
The committee proposes that the aviation industry should bear responsibility for its emissions through a “polluter pays” approach, which would require airlines to fund sustainable fuels and carbon removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage. The CCC estimates that this could increase ticket prices by approximately £150 for a round trip to Alicante and £400 for a round trip to New York by 2050. The committee argues that placing costs on airlines and passengers is preferable to public funding, as it would avoid requiring non-flying citizens to subsidize aviation emissions and would help manage demand growth.
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