Ordnance Survey, in collaboration with the Met Office and 4 Earth Intelligence, has developed a heat vulnerability index assessing 71 cities across England, Scotland and Wales. The analysis identifies which urban areas currently experience intense heat and projects future warming patterns based on built environment characteristics and climate modeling.
Portsmouth emerges as the most heat-vulnerable city both today and throughout the remainder of the century, with the City of Westminster, Plymouth, Leicester and Exeter also facing severe impacts by century’s end. The research indicates that all 71 analyzed cities will reach high heat vulnerability by 2040, with nearly two-thirds potentially reaching the most severe vulnerability level by the year 2100. Leicester shows the most dramatic projected shift, rising from 10th to fourth among the most vulnerable cities over the century.
Urban heat vulnerability stems from the physical composition of cities, where concrete, asphalt, buildings and hard surfaces absorb solar radiation during daylight hours and retain warmth rather than cooling at night like rural areas. Cities can reach temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding regions. Areas with minimal tree cover, green space and waterways face the greatest risk of extreme warming. Within Portsmouth, neighborhoods including Somerstown, Portsea, Southsea and Fratton have been identified as particularly exposed due to limited green areas and hard surfaces, with heat vulnerability patterns overlapping significantly with areas of economic deprivation.
Milton Keynes ranks most favorably for heat resilience, placing 69th out of 71 cities, attributed to its extensive natural surfaces and effective natural cooling mechanisms. The City of London records the highest built-environment heat retention score among all analyzed cities due to concentrated buildings, roads and limited green space. A separate study commissioned by London’s mayor attributed £1.5bn in economic costs to 2022 heatwaves, encompassing productivity losses, health impacts and strain on services.
Experts emphasize that heat vulnerability varies significantly at street level within individual cities, with consistently overheated areas being most susceptible during heatwave events. The research provides data intended to support urban planning decisions regarding heat refuge placement and advance emergency response planning.
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