Research from Ordnance Survey, the Met Office and 4 Earth Intelligence has developed a heat vulnerability index assessing all 71 royal-chartered cities across Great Britain. The analysis identifies which urban areas face the most acute risks from rising temperatures driven by global warming and the urban heat island effect.
Portsmouth emerges as the most heat-vulnerable city today and is projected to remain at the highest vulnerability level through the end of the century. The City of Westminster ranks third currently and second in future projections behind Portsmouth. Other cities showing significant vulnerability include Plymouth, Leicester and Exeter. Leicester is expected to experience the most dramatic rise in rankings, climbing from tenth place presently to fourth by the century’s end. Exeter, Nottingham, Bristol and Brighton and Hove are also anticipated to rank among the ten most vulnerable cities by that timeframe.
The index reveals that urban areas with substantial concrete, asphalt and hard surfaces absorb solar radiation and retain heat rather than cooling naturally, creating temperature differentials of up to 10 degrees Celsius compared to surrounding rural areas. Cities with the least tree cover, green space and waterways face the highest warming risks. Research indicates that by 2040 all 71 analyzed cities will reach high heat vulnerability levels, while nearly two-thirds could attain the most severe category by the century’s end.
Milton Keynes demonstrates resilience to heat stress, ranking 69th among the 71 cities studied, with the lowest built-environment vulnerability in England and the most effective natural cooling metrics due to extensive natural surfaces. The research notes that vulnerability concentrates within specific neighborhoods, with areas of limited green space often overlapping with zones of economic deprivation. London heatwaves in 2022 generated estimated economic costs of £1.5 billion across productivity, health, education, energy demand, transportation and emergency services.
Experts emphasize that understanding heat vulnerability patterns supports urban planning and emergency preparedness. The findings provide guidance for determining heat refuge locations and developing proactive climate adaptation strategies ahead of extreme weather events.
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