An analysis conducted by Ordnance Survey in collaboration with the Met Office and 4 Earth Intelligence has produced a heat vulnerability index assessing all 71 royal-chartered cities across Great Britain. The research ranks cities based on their susceptibility to extreme heat both presently and through the remainder of the century, with Portsmouth identified as the most vulnerable location today and projected to retain that status through 2100.
The study reveals that urban areas warm significantly due to hard surfaces such as concrete and asphalt that absorb solar radiation during daylight hours and retain heat overnight, functioning similarly to radiators. Cities can reach temperatures 10 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding rural regions. Geographic areas facing the greatest risk of warming are those characterized by minimal tree coverage, limited green space, and few waterways. According to the analysis, all 71 cities examined will achieve high heat vulnerability status by 2040, while approximately two-thirds are projected to reach the most severe level by century’s end.
Portsmouth, Leicester, the City of Westminster, Plymouth and Exeter face the most severe projected impacts by 2100. Leicester demonstrates the most dramatic shift in rankings, climbing from 10th place presently to fourth by century’s end. Other cities including Nottingham, Bristol and Brighton and Hove are similarly projected to enter the ten most vulnerable locations. Within Portsmouth, neighborhoods including Somerstown, Portsea, Southsea and Fratton have been identified as particularly exposed due to limited vegetation and extensive hard surfaces, with officials noting these areas overlap significantly with economically disadvantaged zones.
The City of London and Westminster rank among the most heat-retentive urban environments nationally, with the City of London recording the highest built-environment score and least effective natural cooling. A prior study commissioned by London’s mayor estimated that 2022 heatwaves cost the city £1.5bn through productivity losses, health impacts, educational disruption and effects on energy, transport and emergency services. Milton Keynes ranks comparatively favorably at 69th among the 71 cities analyzed, possessing the lowest built-environment vulnerability in England and the most effective natural cooling due to extensive natural surfaces.
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