Research from Ordnance Survey, the Met Office, and 4 Earth Intelligence has produced a heat vulnerability index for 71 cities across Great Britain, identifying which urban areas face the greatest risks from extreme temperatures as global heating intensifies.
Portsmouth ranks as the most vulnerable city to extreme heat both currently and into the future, with a population of 208,000. The analysis also identifies the City of Westminster, Plymouth, Leicester, and Exeter as facing severe heat impacts by the end of the century. Leicester is projected to show the most dramatic change in vulnerability rankings, climbing from 10th currently to fourth position by century’s end. Exeter, Nottingham, Bristol, and Brighton and Hove are also expected to rise into the ten most vulnerable cities.
Urban areas experience elevated temperatures because hard surfaces such as concrete, asphalt, and buildings absorb solar radiation during daylight hours and retain heat rather than cooling naturally at night, potentially reaching temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding rural areas. Cities with the least tree cover, green space, and waterways face the greatest heat exposure risks. In Portsmouth, neighborhoods including Somerstown, Portsea, Southsea, and Fratton have been identified as particularly vulnerable due to limited green areas and extensive hard surfaces.
The index predicts that by 2040, all 71 analyzed cities will reach high heat vulnerability ratings. By the century’s end, nearly two-thirds could reach the most severe vulnerability level. The City of London records the highest built-environment score and least effective natural cooling of any analyzed city, while Milton Keynes performs best, ranking 69th out of 71 for heat vulnerability due to its extensive natural surfaces and effective cooling mechanisms.
Experts note that heat vulnerability varies significantly at street level within individual cities. The research indicates that extreme heat affects public health, workplace comfort, and places pressure on transport, energy, and emergency services infrastructure. A 2022 London heatwave study estimated economic costs at approximately 1.5 billion pounds when accounting for productivity losses, health impacts, and service disruptions.
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